The Winter Bread Graveyard: Why Your GF Sourdough Is Collapsing (And How to Fix It)

The Verdict: Winter Is Bread's Worst Enemy

Listen, I got three collapsed sourdough loaves this week. Three. And Lazarus (my starter) is looking at me like I betrayed him. The problem? Winter humidity is a liar, and I wasn't adjusting my hydration ratios to match the actual moisture in the air.

If your GF sourdough has gone from "beautiful oven spring" to "sad pancake," this post is your rescue mission. I'm walking you through the exact seasonal adjustments, environmental controls, and diagnostic steps that got my crumb back on track.

The Science: Why Winter Destroys Your Dough

Here's what's happening in your kitchen right now:

• Relative Humidity (RH) is 30-40% (vs. summer's 60-70%). This means your dough is losing moisture faster than you think.
• Your hydration ratio is stuck at summer levels. If you're using 85% hydration (which works in July), your February dough is drying out during bulk fermentation.
• Oven spring is non-existent. Without that initial burst of steam and rise, your loaf just... spreads. It doesn't climb.
• Gluten-free dough is WORSE at retaining moisture because xanthan gum and psyllium husk don't have the same protein matrix as wheat gluten. Winter humidity hits GF dough 20% harder.

The result? A crumb that's either gummy (because you overcompensated) or dry and crumbly (because you didn't adjust enough).

The Diagnosis: Is It Actually a Winter Problem?

Before you panic, let's confirm:

Take the "Poke Test":

1. Let your dough bulk ferment for 4 hours (your normal timeline).
2. Poke the surface with a floured finger. Does the indent spring back immediately? → You're under-hydrated.
3. Does the indent stay and slightly collapse? → You're over-hydrated.
4. Does it spring back halfway? → You're in the sweet spot (but probably still need a 5% adjustment for winter).

The "Crumb Post-Mortem":

• Gummy interior + dense crumb: Too much hydration OR insufficient fermentation time.
• Dry, crumbly crumb + weak oven spring: Not enough hydration for the current humidity.
• Flat loaf with no rise: Humidity is too low, and you're losing steam in the oven.

The Fix: Seasonal Hydration Adjustments

I'm giving you the exact formula I use. This is for a GF sourdough with xanthan gum or psyllium husk (adjust if you're using a different binder).

Winter Hydration (November–March, RH 30-45%)

• Base Hydration: 88-92% (up from summer's 85%)
• Xanthan Gum: 1.5% of flour weight (increases water retention)
• Psyllium Husk: 2% of flour weight (acts as a moisture sponge)
• Bulk Fermentation: 5-6 hours (longer fermentation = more gluten development in GF dough)

Example Recipe (500g flour base):

• 500g GF flour blend (King Arthur Measure for Measure or Cup4Cup)
• 460g water (92% hydration)
• 100g active sourdough starter (fed 4-6 hours prior)
• 10g salt
• 7.5g xanthan gum
• 10g psyllium husk (optional but HIGHLY recommended for winter)

The Fold Schedule:

1. Hour 1: Mix all ingredients. Rest 30 minutes.
2. Hour 1:30: First set of folds (4 folds, 30 seconds apart). The dough will feel shaggy—that's normal.
3. Hour 2:30: Second set of folds.
4. Hour 3:30: Third set of folds.
5. Hour 4:30–6:00: Final proof. Watch for 25-30% volume increase (not the full "double" you'd see with wheat).

Environmental Controls: The Hidden Variable

Here's what I did to stop losing the battle with winter humidity:

1. **Measure Your Actual Humidity**

Buy a $12 hygrometer (seriously, do this). If your kitchen is below 40% RH, you need to intervene. If it's above 50%, you can relax slightly.

2. **Create a Proofing Box**

I use a large plastic storage container with a damp (not wet) kitchen towel inside. The dough sits on a rack above the towel. This keeps the surface from drying out during the final proof.

Pro tip: Don't let the towel touch the dough. Condensation will make your surface gummy.

3. **Preheat Your Dutch Oven Longer**

In winter, I preheat for 45 minutes (vs. 30 in summer). The extra heat helps generate steam more aggressively, which is critical when the ambient humidity is low.

4. **Score Deeper**

A shallow score (1/4 inch) will close up in dry conditions. I go 1/2 inch deep and at a 45-degree angle. This forces the loaf to expand upward instead of sideways.

The Steam Hack: Winter Edition

Standard Dutch oven steam isn't enough in February. Here's what I do:

1. Preheat Dutch oven to 500°F for 45 minutes.
2. Score your dough (1/2 inch, 45-degree angle).
3. Place dough in Dutch oven.
4. Immediately pour 1/2 cup of boiling water into a cast iron skillet on the bottom rack (below the Dutch oven).
5. Cover Dutch oven and reduce heat to 450°F.
6. Bake covered for 25 minutes.
7. Remove Dutch oven lid. Bake uncovered for 20-25 minutes until deep golden brown.

The extra steam from the skillet mimics summer humidity and gives you that oven spring back.

Troubleshooting: The Winter Bread Graveyard

If you're still getting fails, here's the diagnostic tree:

Symptom: Flat loaf, no oven spring

• → Increase hydration by 2%
• → Extend bulk fermentation by 30 minutes
• → Use the steam hack above

Symptom: Gummy crumb, dense interior

• → Decrease hydration by 2%
• → Reduce bulk fermentation by 30 minutes
• → Check your starter: is it actually mature? (Should smell slightly sour and have a dome shape, not flat)

Symptom: Crumb is dry and crumbly

• → Your hydration is too low OR your fermentation is too long (dough is over-proofed)
• → Increase hydration by 3%
• → Reduce bulk fermentation by 1 hour
• → Check that xanthan gum is fully hydrated (mix it with a little water first, then add to dough)

Symptom: Loaf spreads sideways instead of up

• → Your dough is over-hydrated (reduce by 3%)
• → Your folds weren't strong enough (do 4 sets instead of 3, with more force)
• → Your bulk fermentation is too long (reduce by 1 hour)

Lazarus in Winter: Starter Maintenance

Your starter is also struggling. Cold kitchens slow fermentation, which means:

• Feed Lazarus more frequently: Every 8 hours instead of 12 (to keep him active in cold temps).
• Use warmer water: 90°F instead of room temperature. This speeds up fermentation.
• Keep him in a warmer spot: Top of the fridge (heat from the compressor) or near (not on) a radiator.
• Check his maturity before using: He should have a dome and smell slightly sour. If he's flat and smells like acetone, he needs another 2-4 hours.

Lazarus isn't failing you. He's just moving slower. Respect the pace.

The Real Talk: Winter GF Sourdough Is Hard

Wheat sourdough has gluten to hold things together. GF sourdough has xanthan gum and psyllium husk—which are powerful but finicky. Add winter humidity into the mix, and you're solving a three-variable equation every single bake.

But here's the thing: if you nail the hydration, the environmental controls, and the steam, you'll get a crumb that's indistinguishable from wheat sourdough. I've had James (my non-GF husband) blind-taste my winter loaves, and he couldn't tell the difference.

That's not luck. That's science.

Next Steps

1. Get a hygrometer. Measure your kitchen humidity right now.

2. Adjust your hydration ratio based on the chart above.

3. Try the steam hack on your next bake.

4. Take a crumb shot and DM me if you're still stuck. I'll walk you through it.

Stay safe, eat well.